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TOP STORIES
A US warplane shot down an Iranian-made drone operated
by pro-regime forces in southern Syria early Tuesday, officials said,
in the latest incident in rising tensions between the two sides. It
comes days after a US warplane shot down a Syrian government fighter
jet in the north of the country, prompting a furious reaction from
Russia. Moscow has now suspended an incident hotline intended to
prevent confrontations in Syria's crowded air space, and warned it
could consider US-led coalition planes "targets". The
rising tensions prompted Australia to announce it was suspending its
participation in air missions over Syria as part of the US-led
coalition fighting ISIS. In Tuesday's incident, the US-led coalition
said an F-15E Strike Eagle jet destroyed an armed Shahed-129 drone in
the early hours of the morning as it neared the Al-Tanaf base along
Syria's eastern border. "It displayed hostile intent and
advanced on Coalition forces," the statement said.
An Iranian opposition group has found 12 sites, not
previously disclosed, where the Islamic government is developing
ballistic missiles with the help of North Korean experts. The disclosure,
one of many in a lengthy and detailed report released Tuesday by the
National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), describes how Iran's
missile program has accelerated since it signed an agreement on July
14, 2015, to limit its development of nuclear weapons. The report's
material reflects intelligence gathered by the People's Mojahedin
Organization of Iran. "The findings show the first full picture
of the missile program of the Iranian regime, which is very extensive
and costly. It also shows a close tie between the nuclear weapons
program and the missile program," Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy
director of the NCRI's U.S. office, said to Fox News.
Iranian state media on Wednesday called the appointment
of Mohammed Bin Salman to the position of crown prince and successor
to Saudi Arabia's King Salman as a "soft coup". "Soft
coup in Saudi Arabia/Son becomes the successor of the father,"
read the headline on the Iranian state TV website. The move is likely
to rattle Iran's leadership, which has been critical of comments by
Prince Mohammed last month that the "battle" should be
taken into Iran. Iran, which is predominantly Shi'ite Muslim, and
Saudi Arabia, which is mostly Sunni, compete for power and influence
across the region. The two countries support opposite sides in the
conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
Legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia and Iran
that passed the U.S. Senate nearly unanimously last week has run into
a procedural problem that could prevent a quick vote in the House of
Representatives, lawmakers said on Tuesday. The Countering Iran's
Destabilizing Activities Act, which also includes new sanctions
against Russia, passed the Senate 98-2 last week, an overwhelming
vote that looked like it might complicate President Donald Trump's
desire for warmer relations with Moscow. But the measure must still
pass the House before it can be sent to Trump to sign into law, or
veto, and the House parliamentarian found that the legislation
violated a constitutional requirement that any bill that raises
revenue for the government must originate in the House, something
known as a "blue slip" violation. "The final bill, and
final language, violated the origination clause in the
Constitution," Representative Kevin Brady, the Republican
chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, told reporters.
BUSINESS RISK
France's Total SA said Tuesday it would push forward
with a $1 billion investment this summer in a giant Iranian gas
field, the first commitment by a Western company to put real money
into the Islamic Republic's re-emerging energy industry. The
Paris-based oil giant has been at the forefront of Western energy
companies looking to return to Iran after sanctions on its energy
industry were lifted in January 2016. Total reached a preliminary
agreement late last year with China National Petroleum Corp. and an
Iranian company to invest $4.8 billion to develop parts of a giant
gas field in the Persian Gulf, but the deal is still being completed.
In May, Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh told The Wall Street
Journal he was "very optimistic" about reaching an
agreement with Total "very soon." CNPC didn't respond to
requests for comment, and its investment commitment wasn't disclosed
Tuesday.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Wednesday
that OPEC members are considering further oil output cuts but should
wait until the effect of the current reduced level of production is
made clear. "We are in discussions with OPEC members to prepare
ourselves for a new decision," Zanganeh said after a cabinet
meeting, according to the website for the Islamic Republic of Iran
Broadcasting (IRIB). "But making decisions in this organisation
is very difficult because any decision will mean production cuts for
the members." The reason for the discussion is an increase in
the levels of U.S production which OPEC members had not predicted,
Zanganeh said.
IRAQ CRISIS
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Tuesday against any measures
that could weaken the Tehran-backed Shi'ite paramilitary groups,
saying such actions would endanger Baghdad's stability. At a
meeting in Tehran, Khamenei said the Shi'ite militias were Iraq's
main forces pushing back Sunni jihadist groups, and Baghdad should
not trust the United States in the fight against the Islamic State,
Iranian state media reported. The Shi'ite militias, known as Popular
Mobilisation Forces (PMF) helped Baghdad defend the country against
the Islamic State militant group when Iraqi military and police
divisions deserted en masse in 2014. Since then, the Iran-backed
militias, estimated to comprise more than 60,000 fighters, have
continued to attack the Islamic State, also known as Daesh, which has
declared a Caliphate across swathes of Iraq and Syria. But Sunnis in
areas freed from Islamic State control say the Shi'ite militias have
carried out looting, abductions and murder.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has spoken
out against a referendum on independence for Iraqi Kurds set for
later this year. A Tuesday report on Khamenei's website quoted him as
telling visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, that Iraq
"should remain integrated" and that advocates of Kurdish
independence are "opponents of the independence and
identity" of Iraq. Iran has its own Kurdish minority in the west
of the country and the central government dismantled a
self-proclaimed Soviet-backed Kurdish government in the 1940's.
Kurdish officials in Iraq say the referendum will be held in Sept.
25. Iran and Iraq have been close allies since fall of former Iraqi
dictator Saddam Hussein.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday
praised the "success" of Iraqi forces in the battle against
the Islamic State group in Mosul. "Today Daesh is fleeing Iraq
and this is an admirable success," Khamenei said in reference to
the jihadist group as he received Iraqi Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi in Tehran. But he warned that Iraq "should not
trust" the United States, which is leading a coalition fighting
IS in Iraq and neighbouring Syria. Abadi is on a regional tour that
started in Saudi Arabia and will include a stop in Kuwait. He also
met Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, as Iraqi forces on Tuesday
pressed an assault on the Old City in western Mosul, the last part of
Iraq's second city still held by the jihadists.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
Iran's Revolutionary Guard is rejecting Saudi claims
that its navy captured three members of the elite force intending to
carry out an attack on a major offshore oilfield. Gen. Rasoul
Sanaeizadeh, deputy head of the Revolutionary Guard's political
bureau, described the Saudi allegations as a "sheer lie"
and "an amateurish fabrication." His remarks were published
Tuesday by Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency. Saudi Arabia says
the Revolutionary Guard members were aboard a boat carrying
explosives headed toward the Marjan oil field in the Persian Gulf on
Friday. Other Iranian officials have claimed the detainees are
fishermen who were lost. Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia and Shiite-ruled
Iran are bitter rivals that back opposing sides of the wars in Syria
and Yemen.
Iran has called on Saudi Arabia to immediately release
three detained Iranians that it says were fishermen but that Saudi
authorities say were trying to carry out an attack. Iran's Interior Ministry
said Wednesday that the Saudi government should
"compensate" the detainees and "punish the agents of
this irresponsible action." Saudi Arabia says the three were
Revolutionary Guard members. It says their boat was loaded with explosives
and they were heading toward the Marjan offshore oil field in the
Persian Gulf when they were apprehended on Friday. Iran has denied
the allegations, saying they were fishermen whose boat was carried
off course. The two countries are bitter regional rivals, and severed
diplomatic ties last year.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Even the gentle references to sexuality
in Fereshteh Ahmadi's short story Harry Is Always Lost meant it was
hit by the censors. The female protagonist is late catching a flight.
In a frantic taxi journey to the airport, she is with a man, but it
is not clear if they are dating or are husband and wife. On the
plane, she sits next to a strange man, who starts a conversation and
ends up giving her a lift when they land in Tehran. This stranger
drives so fast that the wind blows her scarf away, leaving her
struggling to cover her head until they manage to buy a new one. The
story was initially in Ahmadi's 2013 collection, Heatstroke, but
censors at Iran's ministry of culture and Islamic guidance, who vet
all books before publication, asked her to remove it. "They
wanted the man and the woman in the story to be husband and wife or
at least be engaged," says the Tehran-based writer, while
visiting the UK for the first time on the invitation of the
International Agatha Christie festival in Torquay.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
In the aftermath of the June 7 terrorist attacks in Tehran
claimed by the Islamic State (IS), Iranian Reformists and moderates
have sought to overcome the heightened factional divisions lingering
from the recent presidential elections. Indeed, Abdollah
Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Mohammad Reza Aref and Mostafa
Tajzadeh among many other Reformist politicians have called for
national unity. In contrast, conservative and hard-line politicians
have not missed the opportunity to target their rivals. Even as
bullets were flying inside parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, a political offensive against moderate President
Hassan Rouhani kicked off. Rather than a cause for national unity,
the attacks in Tehran marked the beginning of a new bout of political
infighting. Though Iranian hard-liners have quickly seized the June 7
terrorist attacks in Tehran as an opportunity to rally forces, it is
unclear whether their security-focused discourse will gain steam.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Rarely has the Middle East been more baffling. The
United States sells fighter jets to Qatar, a country the American
president accuses of sponsoring terrorism. In Syria, the U.S. is
relying on Kurdish fighters that Turkey, a NATO country closely
aligned with Qatar, says are terrorists, supporting their mission to
take Raqqa, the Islamic State's capital, with airstrikes launched
from a giant U.S. base outside of Doha. The U.S. accuses Russia of
complicity in the Syrian government's chemical attacks on its own
people, and hits Syrian forces, but hopes to collaborate with Moscow
to fight ISIS. Got all that? Amid this confusion, Iran is pressing
ahead to strengthen its grip on Syria, even as Trump goes after ISIS.
Iran's intervention to save President Bashar al-Assad's regime has
involved sending not just elite Iranian military advisers but also
bringing in Lebanese Hezbollah and other Shia militias from as far
away as Afghanistan. While estimates vary on the size of these
forces, the numbers are in the tens of thousands. Iran's sectarian
shock troops are being used to extend the regime's writ, especially
as the Syrian regime's deployable military manpower has shrunk to
about 20,000 forces.
The Trump administration has quietly ramped up its
involvement in trying to free two Iranian Americans being held in
Iran's notorious Evin prison, including one who is in very poor
health. The effort is now not only a focus of the administration's
approach to Iran, but also part of an overall increase of attention
to the plight of Americans held unjustly abroad. Siamak Namazi, an
Iranian American businessman, was arrested in Tehran in October 2015
and charged with espionage and collusion with an enemy country - the
United States. When Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated for the
release of five American hostages to coincide with the announcement
of the Iran nuclear deal, Namazi was not among them The following
month the Iranians arrested his father Baquer Namazi, a former
longtime United Nations official who is 81 years old and in poor
health Both have been sentenced to 10 years in prison. Now, as the
Trump administration conducts a comprehensive review of its Iran
policy, the White House is considering new action to bring them home.
On Sunday evening, a U.S. warplane shot down a Syrian
jet after it bombed American-backed rebels in northern Syria...Even
if the Pentagon may not want to directly engage Syrian forces or
their Russian and Iranian-backed allies, there's a danger of
accidental escalation, especially as various forces continue to
converge on eastern and southern Syria to reclaim strategic territory
from ISIS...But the dangers are perhaps particularly acute when it
comes to Iran, which made dramatic battlefield moves of its own on
Sunday, when it launched several missiles from inside Iran against
ISIS targets in eastern Syria. Officially, Iran's Revolutionary
Guards said the volley of missiles fired at Deir Ezzor province was a
response to a pair of attacks by ISIS in Tehran on June 7, which
killed 18 people and wounded dozens; the attacks marked the first
time that ISIS had struck inside Iran. But the Iranian regime had
several less-dramatic means to exact revenge against ISIS targets in
Syria-after all, there's no shortage of Iranian allies operating in
the war-ravaged country.
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