Thursday, April 19, 2018

Eye on Iran: EU Edges Closer to New Iran Sanctions Ahead of Trump Deadline, Envoys Say



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TOP STORIES


European Union governments are showing more support for the idea of new sanctions on Iran proposed by Britain, France and Germany as a way of dissuading U.S. President Donald Trump from pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal, diplomats say.


The U.S. sanctions on Russian aluminum producer United Co. Rusal should be a stark warning to Iran and buyers of its oil. This White House doesn't seem to care about the impact of its sanctions on important markets, and oil could be next.


President Donald Trump is "perfectly fine walking away from" the Iran nuclear deal next month if an agreement isn't reached with European partners to address his concerns, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said Wednesday.

UANI IN THE NEWS


[UANI Veterans Advisory Council member Michael] Pregent has been advocating walking away from the Iran deal, increasing leverage on Tehran, Baghdad, and the European Union, countries which are hesitant to invest in Iran, even with the JCPOA still in effect... "We are going to get back the leverage we had before Obama lifted the sanctions; put sanctions back on the central bank of Iran. There will be sanctions on Iran's economy. We will negotiate from a position of strength, not a position that the Obama administration negotiated, which was simply giving into demands with hope of success," the senior Middle East analyst stressed.
NUCLEAR DEAL


The United States is hopeful of reaching agreement with Britain, France and Germany to address U.S. concerns about the Iran nuclear deal, U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood told a news conference in Geneva on Thursday. Wood said that the discussions were "intense" ahead of a May 12 deadline, and said the United States had concerns about a failure to address Iran's ballistic missile program, 10-year "sunset" clauses for limits on Iran's nuclear programs, and Iran's general behavior in the Middle East.


French President Emmanuel Macron is cautious about his chances of convincing Donald Trump to stick with the Iran nuclear accord and doesn't expect any breakthrough on his visit to the U.S. next week, his aides said... France, along with Germany and the U.K., will seek to give Trump guarantees that the deal can work, the officials said. Macron will offer to set out the European nations' additional commitments in a side deal to the main accord, they said.


President Donald Trump will host German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of two European leaders heading to Washington as he mulls the fate of the nuclear deal with Iran.


Pompeo himself knows the flaws of the Iran deal better than almost anyone in Washington. As a member of Congress, he met with European diplomats and bankers to inform them of the many risks that attended investment in Iran's corrupt economy. If anyone can cajole the Europeans to strengthen the nuclear agreement, it's a man who mastered the arcane details of U.S. sanctions and Iran's illicit money laundering.   

NUCLEAR & MISSILE PROGRAMS


An unidentified air-launched cruise missile, rarely seen, was on display at Iran's Army Day parade on Wednesday. Marked with initials of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, the missile features trapezoidal grid fins, most commonly associated with U.S. missiles, and a seeker in tip. According to Ian Williams, associate director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, this suggests the mysterious missile is equipped with some kind of homing guidance, possibly an infrared or TV seeker.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


Iran's supreme leader warned top officials Wednesday that their country was facing threats of espionage and subversion from foreign foes who sought to undermine the Islamic Republic and its increasingly large sphere of influence in the Middle East. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Iranian Ministry of Intelligence officials to be ready to fight an "intelligence war" over public opinion and the integrity of the country's ruling ideology that required both offensive and defensive strategies to win.


As North Korea has ably demonstrated, a motivated opponent will eventually improve their ability to defend themselves from the United States-and Iran has far more resources than North Korea does. A breakthrough in capability, whether it be antiship ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons, or some similar technology, could allow Iran to quickly catch up and effectively challenge American military power. Iran is currently incapable of sinking a U.S. Navy carrier, but that is not an advantage the Pentagon can count on enjoying forever.

SYRIA & IRAN


The US-led attack on Syria's chemical weapons facilities did not achieve most of its objectives and will not deter President Bashar Assad, according to Israeli intelligence assessments.


Seven years after getting involved in the Syrian war, Iran may be beginning to have second thoughts about the wisdom of an adventure that shows no signs of ending.


Mr. Assad's latest chemical-weapons attack handed Mr. Trump an opportunity to take advantage of rare trans-Atlantic and bipartisan support to target Iran's activities in Syria. The president should exploit it to the maximum.

ECONOMIC NEWS


Iranian government institutions will start reporting foreign currency amounts in euros rather than U.S. dollars, state media said on Wednesday as part of the country's effort to reduce its reliance on the American currency.


Foreign intelligence services have played a role in fueling Iran's currency crisis in an effort to destabilize the economy, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


Global markets for equities, currencies and metals have all been whipsawed by the uncertainty over what President Donald Trump's next geopolitical move would be. Oil's about to have a turn.


The weight of bad loans in Iranian banks could be far greater than official estimates, and the government may not be able to afford a fix.


It is no secret that over the past decade all Iranian banks were negatively affected by sanctions, internal mismanagement and corruption. Another disturbing factor in the financial sector has been the presence of unlicensed financial institutions that distorted the market and created unregulated competition for regulated banks. Furthermore, corruption and government interference have led to the accumulation of tens of billions of dollars of bad debts that will continue to put pressure on the balance sheets of Iranian banks for some time to come. Should these toxic assets lead to a collapse of the banking sector, Iran will experience major economic hardship.

ISRAEL & IRAN


Israel has reportedly canceled plans to send warplanes to a joint military exercise with the U.S. amid concern about the buildup of Iranian forces across the border in Syria.


The ongoing debate among experts as to whether Washington has a strategy for dealing with the Syrian civil war in the wake of missile strikes by U.S., British, and French forces on alleged Syrian chemical weapons facilities masks a far more urgent strategic need: a coherent approach to the increasingly volatile confrontation between Israel and Iran.


An Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel is likely in the works. Where and how Tehran chooses to carry out its attack is still unclear, but for reasons that we describe below, it is most likely to be a rocket or missile attack launched from Syria. The choice will define what to expect for the future of Iranian and Israeli confrontations.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a veiled warning to Iran, saying in a Memorial Day speech that his country will defend itself against anyone that tries to harm it.


Israel faces a harsh new world as Syria's civil war winds down: while Iran remains far away, the Iranian threat now is next door.


Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman on Wednesday warned Israel's enemies the Jewish state would not "compromise" on its security, telling Iran and the Hamas terrorist group to "take this into account and take it seriously."

HUMAN RIGHTS


Iran banned government bodies on Wednesday from using the popular Telegram instant messaging app as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office said his account would shut down to protect national security, Iranian media reported... The order came days after Russia - Iran's ally in the Syrian war - started blocking the app in its territory following the company's repeated refusal to give Russian state security services access to users' secret messages.


While welcoming the 15 April release on bail of Iranian educator unionist Mohammad Habibi after 44 days of detention, Education International urges the Iranian authorities to set jailed trade unionists free.


The European Union last week extended its existing human rights sanctions on Iran by one year. While the EU's decision marks an important step in penalizing Tehran for its ongoing domestic repression, it remains insufficient to address the chronic and systemic human rights abuses that continue to pervade the country.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


An earthquake of at least magnitude 5.5 struck in southern Iran near the country's sole nuclear power plant on Thursday morning, shaking countries across the Persian Gulf. There was no immediate report of damage or injuries.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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